Biden Blunders, Gives a Dangerous Twist to Russia-NATO War
The Dangerous US Decision
One and half month before remitting office, President Biden has put the world in tizzy by authorizing Ukraine to use NATO gifted long-range missiles against Russia. The author has deliberately used the term ‘Russia-NATO war’ because for all practical purposes, it is so (read “One year of NATO-Russia War game and a Clueless Zelenskyy”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/one-year-of-nato-russia-war-game-and-a-clueless-zelenskyy/).
It was on 17 Nov 24 that Biden authorized Ukraine to use the US Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) having an effective range in the vicinity of 250-odd kilometers, on the Russian territories. Till now US had only authorized for its use to liberate own territories in Donbas region occupied by Russia. No sooner the news came out, Russia wasted no time to modify usage of their nuclear doctrines in order to safeguard its sovereignty. As per the Russian Defence cabinet decision, Russia will have the option to use nuclear weapons if any tactical weapon of the NATO countries is used even by non-NATO nations against vital Russian installations. It means that if any long-range missile provided by NATO to Ukraine is used against any of the vital Russian installations, Russia could use nuclear arsenal against both Ukraine as well as the country which provided that missile. This brings the world at the brink of an unimaginably dangerous World War III having a possible devastating use of nuclear weapons.
The Raging NATO-Russia War Game
In the last 2 ½ yrs of the raging Russia-Ukraine war, the inventory and quantum of the NATO combat hardware provided / aided to Ukraine has been massive (read “NATO in Ukraine Creates an Effective Battle-Field against Russia”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/nato-in-ukraine-creates-an-effective-battlefield-against-russia/). The inventory enumerated in the article was as in Dec 2022. In the near 2 year later, the count of the inventory is grown many folds incl combat aircrafts and deadly missiles besides others. The particular weapons of major concerns are F-16 combat aircraft and the long-range US ATACMS & HIMARS as well as the Franco-British Storm-Shadow missiles. In addition, there are far more advanced NATO weapons already in use. Many experts believe that there are also adequate numbers of NATO soldiers in plainclothes on Ukrainian territory firstly, secretly operating those advanced weapons and providing on-job training to a handful of Ukrainian soldiers and secondly, advising Ukrainian troops in operations. It is believed that precision attacks on Russian ammunition depots and occupation of Kursk have been their brainchild.
Hiroshima-like Situation
It is well considered by almost all Defence Experts that the ‘Specific Parameters’ used by the US to drop Nuclear Bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 have already been met/fulfilled by October 2022 for Russia to chose that option against Ukraine (read “Kiev Destruction a Clear Possibility”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/kiev-destruction-clear-possibility/). It is hard to analyse as to why Russia, the global Superpower of yesteryears is bearing unprecedented loss of lives and assets on own territory by a minnow called Ukraine while it has the option to knock them out. May be President Putin is trying to avoid nuclear devastation of the Ukrainians as long as that can be. Of course, Zelenskyy is too naïve and immature to understand all these intricacies of the war game being played by NATO and Russia where Ukraine is only the chessboard.
A Third Variable at Play
There is one more factor in play, the change in the US Presidential Command. USA President Elect Mr Donald Trump has publicly said that he would like to see the end to the Russia-Ukraine war even before he assumes the office. Of course, that is easier said than done because the hawks in EU-NATO would not like to see the war flames extinguished. However, they also know that Trump would like them to bear the fare share of the cost that is presently being born by US. Many of the EU partners unable to bear any more costs, are keen to see an end to this war. Hence, many experts see the present escalation in both verbal narratives as well as fighting as earning some additional bargaining powers. It is another matter though that Ukrainian forces are fast losing grounds in the eastern Ukraine. On the other hand, with the arrival of North Korean Forces alongside the Russians in Kursk region, they are also apprehensive of being pushed back much faster. Zelenskyy is seriously at high risk of losing entire grounds east of Dnipro river and if Odessa goes, it will become a land-locked nation. Hence, better sense may prevail on him, and the present escalation may not go to a Nuclear flashpoint.
A Possible Escalation
Some analysts put UK on the hit list as first strike because British Storm-Shadow missile has already been fired on Russia BUT that may not be the case. Most experts feel that if it comes to nuclear flashpoint, Kiev/Liev may be the first one to be hit. War doctrines suggest that a single nuclear hit on a large nation like Ukraine, may not be enough to knock out their will power. There could be another one or two strikes on Lviev/Odessa too, to paralyse their collective will. On one hand, it will break Zelenskyy’s will power and on the other, it will not create enough reason for NATO to retaliate because they were not hit. A trial firing of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in the early hours of 21st Nov 2024 by Russia on Dnipro city in the neighborhood of Kiev having conventional explosives may be very consequential and a warning of possible future hit on Kiev itself. However, if either a NATO nation takes the first hit or they retaliate on Russian mainland, it could reach a point of no return and a full fledges WW-III may be the result. Further, one nuclear flashpoint caused in the region may not remain isolated or confined to that. Iran and Israel are at loggerheads and so are North Korea and USA. All of them may like to settle scores as the UN/UNSC will be in limbo if WW-III breaks out. India too will have to keep a strict eye on Pakistan because this terror sponsoring Islamic nation is highly unpredictable. China may not jump the gun.
A Face-Saving Way Out
The Russia-Ukraine war has long been out of the hands of Zelenskyy. Despite having lost substantial troops, infrastructures, and territorial rights, he is in no position to stop the war. His troops are depleted and fatigued, no longer able to protect the integrity of the nation. The war machines are difficult to come as freely as it used to. There is also high corruption among both Defence and political classes of alleged selling of equipment. The shots are mostly called by USA and to lesser extent, by the NATO countries of the EU. An anti-Russian and hostile USA would like to see this war continuing to inflict serious damages to Russia in its own backyards. However, the next President having reasonably good rapport with Putin, would like to see an end to the hostilities. Many EU members of NATO too are finding it difficult to continue financing the ongoing war. The recent twist in the war by outgoing US President has brought the world closure to WW-III which may be excessively devastating for the entire world.
The Bottom Lines
Russia-Ukraine war is at a critical juncture with Joe Biden having authorized Ukraine the use of long-range missiles against Russian mainland. The parameters for nuclear flashpoints akin to Hiroshima/Nagasaki have already been met almost 2 yrs back. World is waiting with bated breath that the present situation doesn’t escalate. There are all possibilities of a multilateral conflagration leading to WW-III. The next World War will be highly destructive with nuclear arsenals being used liberally that may doom the humanity of the world.