Is BRICS Being Sabotaged?

The Economic Cooperation Group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) set-up in 2009, had a grand summit meeting this year in Kazan, Russia with great fanfare. It is an annual event but 2024 summit had created a bit more curiosity because it was being held in Russia that is at war with Ukraine for more than 1 ½ yrs. The curiosity was also for two different reasons. Firstly, to see as to how Russia slapped with numerous many sanctions by Europe and America copes-up and secondly, it was the first meeting with 5 new participating members namely, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi and UAE. There are some nations who wish to join the group and there are others who were invited by the host. Altogether, 36 nations had participated thus representing world ~55% population and ~60% economy. Even UN Secretary General Mr Guterres had attended the meeting.

BRICS nation have contributed funds to start a New Development Bank (NDB) that is feared by the Western Nations as diluting the powers of the World Bank and the International Monitory Fund (IMF) which for long have been alleged to indulged in ‘Dollarisation’ of the world. They have often political attachments too. EU and other Developed nations were apprehensive that NDB may be indulging in “De-Dolarisation” by trading in their local currencies to subdue the impacts of US currency. However, NDB has struggled to come anywhere close to the WB or IMF clientele, leave alone challenging them. India has suggested to use their Unified Payment Interface (UPI) adopted by many other countries to trade in their local currencies. This could practically challenge the European Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) payment system. All believe that BRICS could bring economic spurts among the member nations.

In view of the limited clientele of the NDB mentioned above, increasing the membership in the group looked a preferred path. Expansion of BRICS membership have been in talks for many years but effected only in 2024. In the effort to expansion there are a few legitimate apprehensions too. The first and foremost is the dilution of the hold of the founder nations. The next worry is the groupism by the blocks. China, Russia & Iran have various mutual cooperation and form one block. Now in 2024, some nations are also the members of GCC/OIC/Islamic nations; presently totaling five. India, Saudi and UAE also support US influence in the region which not preferred by the Sino-Russian block. It is understood that 34 nations have applied for the membership as shown in the text box below. Nations shown in red are the GCC/OIC/Islamic Nations. At this juncture of budding new membership, some among the new nations may try to indulge in setting/promoting political narratives. In their first meeting itself, the founders of BRICS could hear the contentious political voice on Ukraine and Gaza/Palestine. With more Islamic nations joining, such narrative-making could be frequent, and they may also try to force including their political agenda in the summit meetings.

BRICS already seems to have erred in extending membership to Iran which undoubtedly, is a terror sponsoring State. It runs Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis…all known to be dreaded terrorist organisations. Money laundering to jihadi terrorist organization is common by the Islamic nations. It is a known fact that most, if not all Islamic nations have either founded one or more terrorist/Jihadi organization on their territory or are funding/nurturing/supporting it. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Palestine, Turkey, Malaysia etc harbor several Jihadi organisations and there is a reasonably tough competition among Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Malaysia to be seen as the champion amongst the more radical Islamic States having high hold on the world terrorist groups. Iran is also under many sanctions by the USA. This is a dangerous situation. If these Islamic nations become the member states of the BRICS too, there is a possibility of them using terror as an instrument to threaten other member states. This could be a replica of the SAARC where its member Pakistan uses terror as state tool to destabilase India, another member in the group. India had no option but to put SAARC activities in deep freeze.

Accommodating the aspirant nations shown above, or for that reason, other sets of nations in future will inherently bring in a possibility of groupism/affiliations with known/existing blocks of nations. There also could be smaller nations under influence/favour of regional/global powers. Many of the aspiring nations for BRICS membership are also under Chinese debt, struggling to payback. Such nations surely would obey the Chinese dictats during various decisions of the BRICS thus bringing Chinese hegemony. Similarly, Islamists have their reasonably strong alliance while taking a joint ideological Islamic stance. Thus, UN-like voting platform may form in BRICS too. India, Brazil and South Africa having no formal affiliation to any of the above groups, will have to be wary of such sub-groupings within the expanded BRICS. China will be more than willing to have the member nations in the group who could dance to its tunes, thus sabotaging the very ethos of BRICS with an apprehension of being sidelined by the mightier one. Here comes the need for some proactive actions by India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) to safeguard their rights and relevance.

While procedures and terms for including new members are being worked out in BRICS, few checks and balances must be put in place by IBSA, namely:-

• Permit only those who are under no financial obligation of BRICS member States.
• Admit any new member only by full consensus of all members or at least the ‘Founder Five’. This will allow any of the IBSA members to exercise safeguards.
• If anytime it is revealed that any member nation is coerced during voting, the membership should be forfeited and due loan/debt if any, should be recovered by the fastest means.

Obviously, China is the elephant in the room with far stronger financial might in the coming years or decade before India can try catching up. Till that time, there are clear possibility of BRICS being sabotaged.

The Bottom-Lines

BRICS is a relatively newer economic platform with limited outreach. New members are hence, being accommodated to expand it. There is a real risk of sub-groups, sub-alliance, nations under debt of stronger group members getting in and becoming a majority block in voting rights. If that happens, there are possibilities of some of the founding members getting marginalized or sidelined. This could practically sabotage the very concept and Ethos of the BRICS. That will be very unfortunate, and India must be wary of such happenings. It will be in the interest of the IBSA to proactively incorporate three clauses mentioned above so as to safeguard their interests and prevent BRICS from being sabotaged.