Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah War Putting Middle East at the Edge

A Brief Preamble

Presently the ongoing Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war of 2023-24 has not been a worrisome development only for the Middle East but for the entire region. The entire Middle East, predominantly of Islamic nations, have been hostile to Israeli Jews ever since it came to existence through a 1947 Arabian partition plan of the United Nations. However, Muslim Arabian nation didn’t want Jewish Israel to co-exist in their neighborhood. In fact, Arabs resisted the UN plan and had attacked Israel in 1948 with genocidal intents. At one point they had captured much of the Israeli territories too as shown in the figure below. Thanks to the lack of coordinated fighting power amongst Arabs and a resolve of the Jews to fight together for survival; that enabled them not only ward-off the invasion of their land but also could conquer many parts of Arab territories too as shown below.

Arabic Nations Refusing to Accept Existence of Israel, Leading to Many Wars

The Islamic nation alleging Israel was formed on the Palestinian territories was the genesis of their 1948 misadventure in the form of a war that was repeated several times in the later years and decades. In fact, the Arabian nations refused to accept the co-existence of Israel in their vicinity; and that has been the basis of a troubled history of hostilities mostly started by the Arabian/Islamic nations. Some of the major conflicts are shown in the text box below. These Islamic nations have initially been attacking Israel directly in the 1950s, 60s and 70s. However, after the foundation, funding and arming of the several jihadi organisations by those nations, many terrorist groups have been indulging in violence or fighting as proxies of the Arabs but every time, Israel emerged victorious. It is unfortunate that the world lacks a coordinated international or UN/UNHRC/UNSC actions against the Jihadists, thus encouraging the Islamic nations to raise nearly 200-odd Jihadi/terrorist organization by now, who are shaming humanity by committing many genocides in the world (read “Major Jihadi Attacks in World”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/major-islamic-jihadi-attacks-in-the-world/. Maximum price of the Jihadi genocidal actions is being paid by Jews & Christians in the Middle East and by Hindus & Sikhs in South-East Asia (esp Afghanistan, Pakistan & Bangladesh) to which UN has turned a blind eye (read “Muted UNHRC response encouraging Islamic Genocides”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/muted-unhrc-response-encouraging-islamic-genocide/). Of course, in the last few decades, Israel has been firmly supported by USA and some other allies in all their wars.

Genesis of the Presently Ongoing War

The Raging war in the Middle East is at a very critical juncture with hostile actors (both State and non-State) joining in the fray. Hamas, Hezbollah and United Islamic Jihad are already fighting parties in this war. Houthi, another terrorist proxy of Iran in Yemen and some other Islamic Terror groups present in Syria and Iraq have also joined them. It is fortunate that USA has been at 24x7 diplomacy to prevent the regional Islamic nations from joining. Two competitors of Jihadi supremacy in the region, namely Pakistan & Turkey wanted to take leads but are struggling with political & economic turbulence at their own homes hence, not yet jumped in the fray. 

Even before the present unrest had started in the Middle East on 7th Oct 2023, it will be wrong to assume that this region was ever a restful / peaceful in the last 20 centuries or so. Before Christianity was founded, Zhaonism was the main religion followed by several splinter groups of Arabian Tribes. Barbaric Islam in 7th century mercilessly wiped out all other faiths & religions sowing the seeds of future conflicts & wars (read “Islamic hate, intolerance, bigotry & fascism”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/islamic-intolerance-bigotry-fascism-global-caliphate/). Revolts in the form of Crusade I & II in the medieval times and frequent Sectorial wars thereafter have set the tone and tenor of recurrent conflicts in the Middle East long before, be that Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Israel or Palestine. Global powers in the likes of USSR and US-led NATO have also been involved in various invasions on various contexts, further complicating the issues. The various wars and conflicts in the region have been going on unabated. For most of the conflagrations, Palestine issue was considered the core issue by most of the Islamic nations. After the dis-integration of the USSR, USA did show hegemony but in the last one decade or so, it has been trying to keep some balance by treading mid-path of OIC dissentments. ‘Abrahamic Accord’ was one such measure to bring some sort of peace between Israel and other nations…esp with Israel, UAE and Bahrain. Some experts do point out that inhuman indulgence by Hamas on 7th Oct 23 that led to the ongoing conflict, could have been at the behest of Iran. Whatever be the reason, the region has been under deep divisions for long.

Hamas and Hezbollah (or their promoter, Iran) while indulging in the 7th Oct 23 act, must have miscalculated that they will get away with minor skirmishes and the UN/UNSC will be able to step-in to stop the war…BUT…that was not to be. Israel supported to some extent by the USA has firmly stood its ground, trying to meet its resolve of ‘wiping out Hamas’. Hamas by now is nearly getting wiped out despite pressure from the UN/UNSC/ICC/ICJ to reach ceasefire agreement. I fact, biased approach by the UNRWA/UN/UMSC/UNHRC is causing people to lose trust in those institutions (read “UNRWA losing public trust”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/in-israel-hamas-war-unrwa-unhrc-unsc-are-losing-public-trust/). Israel has been able to convince the stakeholders that ceasefire is not possible with Hamas in power in Gaza. Now Israel has taken upon Hezbollah in Lebanon, the other proxy of Iran with two objectives. Firstly, to diminish the fighting ability and secondly and more importantly, to create a Hezbollah-free cushion zone in South Lebanon in accordance with the UN resolution 1701 of 2006. 

War Escalation puts the Region at the Edge

While the Jihadists of various Tanzeems have always been inimical to the Jews of Israel, their founding/funding/supporting nations have never been friendly either. Besides the numerous wars Israel have fought, other nations in the region have seldom seen peace. They always have been at the loggerheads due to sectarian wars or wars often exported by the superpower(s). Presently, besides Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah-Houthi at wars, Syria has been at boils for many years. Yemen has just come out of the raging war, with Iran and Saudi supporting the warring factions. On top of all these, the political temperature of the region could be gaged by the UNGA speeches by the respective Heads of the States of the region. 

The first escalation of the war took place with the direct involvement of Iran in April 2024. The second escalation started with ground invasion by IDF of South Lebanon to create buffer zone in accordance with UNSC resolution. Iran indulged in 3rd escalation on 01 Oct by attacking Israel with 180-odd missiles that did cause damages despite their strong Air Defence Systems. Israel had planned to destroy Iranian Nuclear facilities BUT refrained owing to US advise. Meanwhile the Islamic Resistance Force of Iraq has also struck Israel with their Drones. The entire region of the Middle East is like a volcano, ready to burst in flames anytime. It is almost certain that if Iran choses to strike again, the Israeli retaliation could be full-blown that could engulf their N-installations, Oil-facilities as well as their fighting forces (both Republican Guards and Terrorist Headquarters). It is believed Israel has tested deliverable Nuclear Warheads while Iran may have assembled few N-warheads minus the Tech for releasing at the targets. The situation is very grim, ready to take ugly turn at any miscalculated step by any of the stakeholders. Besides, some of the Islamic states seem eager to jump in the fray. 

 Minor Factor of Safety

While all the above turmoil has been going on, there is also a flicker of hope that any further escalation might not endanger the regional survivability. It is usual experience that any bilateral or multilateral war/conflict mostly conflagrates with the involvement of a Strong Regional or a Global Powers. The factor of safety in the middle east is that neither USA nor China or Russia is involved directly in the ongoing conflict(s). USA, a strong ally of Israel is firmly safeguarding the adjacent seas of Mediterranean and Red Sea with its strong Naval Force that a moderate Navy of Iran cannot even think to penetrate. Russia, a supporter of Iran, is itself at war with Ukraine with strong resistance and China, usually shy of joining any other nation, has been mostly hobnobbing at the Line of Actual Control with India in Ladakh & Arunachal as well as busy in the Taiwan Strait. The other two members of P-5 are depleted powers, unable to project any significant force in the region. None of those Global/Regional Forces are keen for a new front involving Iran. Hence, by default of the fault-lines created by the ongoing wars/conflicts, there is presently a minor factor of safety in the Middle East that may prevent any dangerous escalation caused by those powers.

The Bottom-lines

The presently raging Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war in the Middle East has been under periodic escalations in the >12 months since its onset. Undoubtedly, Israel has brought Hamas on its knees and there are strong possibilities that total objective of the war in Gaza could be achieved even if ceasefire is reached. Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon on the other hand, is far from being over where Israeli objectives were firstly, to deplete the fighting capabilities of Hezbollah that was reasonably strong and secondly, to create a cushion territory in the South Lebanon from the Litany River to the Blue line mandated by the UNSC so as to make northern Israel safe to bring back its civilians. However, entry of Iran in the conflict has greatly brought in instability, bringing the entire middle east to the edge. This is to be dealt with cautiously by both Israel and Iran. Any misadventure by the nation both of whom are believed to possess Nuclear weapons, could usher doom to the entire region. Fortunately, the Global/Regional powers busy elsewhere, are not too keen to escalate in the middle east. It can be hoped that good sense will prevail among all stakeholders so as to bring back some form of normalcy.