Will Trump-2 be a Blessing or Curse for the USA and the World?
Introduction
The Republican Presidential candidate of the United States of America has just won his second election. During his first tenure as president, USA and the world experienced many ups and downs. Undoubted, he has been very unpredictable in his decision making and when US President, world’s only superpower, becomes unpredictable, there were consequences both at the national and international fronts. His political opponents took advantages of him not being a seasoned politician. At the end of his tenure both his and his opponent’s actions had made the country a Divided States of America (read “A Divided State of America”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/the-divided-states-of-america/). While his unpredictiveness had put the world and the international relations on a certain strains, his own senate had made his life miserable an Nancy Pelosi was its architect (read “The US Eyeballs of Bigotry”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/nancy-pelosi-usa-america-democrat-trump/). There were three main drawbacks in Trump-1, namely:-
- He had made lot many nations incl EU and NATO a suspecting ally.
- He had a tendency of Fleeing from Fora that wanted US to lead them. Examples were the WHO, the UN and Climate related issues.
- He often contradicted himself in international relations.
Of course, there were some plus points too. He had made USA much more financially strong, cut unwarranted expenditures and aids. He also avoided any major conflict in the world of USA making BUT he was mostly disliked esp by Black and Muslims.
Trump-2 under Severe International Turbulence
Trump has won the 2024 US-election with reasonable margin when the world is staring at World War-III. Some decisions by the past few US Presidents in the Asian and African continents have created power vacuum as well as decision paralysis that has made the world unsafe as well as letting some of the regional powers to highly expand their areas of influence. The result is the raging wars…in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, Sudan, Yemen, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and so on. Some of these wars have also resulted in genocides of many ethnic minorities to which the UN, UNSC, UNHRC remain silent be it Palestinians in Gaza/West Bank, Yezidis in Iraq, Sikhs/Hindus in Afghanistan; Fur-Masselite-Zaghawa in Sudan and Christians as a whole in the Middle East (read “Muted Human Rights Response encouraging Genocides”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/muted-unhrc-response-encouraging-islamic-genocide/). A degradation of the powers as well as biases on the part of UN/UNSC/UNHRC/ICC/ICJ is of special concern. ICC/ISJ have apparently crossed the ‘Redline’ of justice by issuing warrants against /state heads of Russia and Israel without giving fair hearings to the other sides as well. USA administrations of past had been taking a lead role in their conduct of the responsibilities of those international Institutions of the highest reputes in the past. It is deplorable how they have lowered their own standards under pressure to act in a way that were contrary to their reputes.
Past USA Presidents that the World Knew Of
There was a time during and after the cold war that the USA specifically considered that it was their legitimate right to interfere in the internal matters of any or all nations. If any unexpected event happened in any nation, there used to be a general suspicion that CIA could have done it. However, Trump-1 made a partial shift in that stance. He was the first US President to openly acknowledge and suggest that they would not interfere in other’s internal matters even if for the sake of ‘lip service’ only. US racial atrocities in own land has been a pathetic feature all along where ‘Black African’ had suffered for generations and religious minorities have been under continuous persecutions. The world-wide protests and movement in the form of “Black Lives matters” in 2019 is only one example. USA’s own Human Rights record has been abysmally deplorable but seldom questioned on international platforms. Trump-2 will fare better if they introspect before criticizing others.
Expected Impacts of Trump-2
No sooner Trump achieved indomitable lead in 2024 US election, European Union and NATO went into convulsions. The complete result of the election is yet to be notified as on 10 Nov 24…BUT…Ms Ursula Von del Lyon, president of EU called for an emergency meeting on 7th Nov itself in Budapest to deliberate how to deal with Trump-2. That is the level of panic in the EU. Similarly, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte must be holding his breath in silence. Trump-1’s approach towards NATO had been rather firm, non-interference and non-inimical towards Russia (read “Foresight of NATO (Europe) wins over NATO(US)”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/foresight-of-nato-europe-wins-over-nato-us/). Stoltenberg, the past Secretary General (SG) had a tough time under him. However, he was able to squeeze Biden to the maximum and in turn, retain his own relevance. There is hardly any doubt that Trump-2 will be highly reluctant to any more of wasteful expenditure in Ukraine war. There are rumours that Trump may opt USA out of NATO in the coming months/years. All these initial shockers point to a possible future happening.
Trump-1 had shown a weakness of “Flight” than ‘fight’. He was unable to maneuver UN/UNSC/UNHRC at will unlike his predecessors. Hence, he chose flight as his option. He avoided locking horns with WHO or China during latter’s export of “Covid19 pandemic” to the world that could have led to a transparent and independent investigation thus pinning the Chinese down. Sheepishly, he just opted out of the WHO. Similarly, he also opted out of many other agreements be it Climate, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) with Iran and several others. Although many of such decisions restricted USA’s wasteful expenditures, it also weakened the hold and reputation of US on the world affairs. Biden had to struggle to re-navigate through the dead waters.
Immediate Challenges for Trump-2
Trump-2 could be a challenge for the international community as much as for the UN/UNSC/UNHRC to deal with. Although he has spoken of resolving Ukraine issue before assuming his office, it is easier said than done. He will surely be mindful of the “Treaty of unlimited cooperation” between Russia and China. An abrupt withdrawal from Ukrainian commitment may ruffle the feathers of other NATO allies as well as Democrats at home. USA has already spent over a trillion dollars in the raging war on Ukrainian soil which is essentially between US-led NATO and Russia (read “NATO in Ukraine creates an effective battlefield against Russia”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/nato-in-ukraine-creates-an-effective-battlefield-against-russia/).
Trump is somehow convinced that ‘Climate Change’ as perceived by the UN, is a hoax and there are reasons to believe this (read “Climate Change: Some Divergent Views”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/climate-change-some-divergent-views/). In a similar way, the present UN/UNSC/UNHRC dealing with Islamic terrorism is seriously flawed, fast losing their credibility (read “In Israel-Hamas war, UNRWA-UNHRC-UNSC losing public trust”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/in-israel-hamas-war-unrwa-unhrc-unsc-are-losing-public-trust/). UNHRC/UNSC have lost the sense of direction they are heading, trying to treat symptoms not the disease (read “Islamic Hate & Intolerance: Treat the Disease not Symptoms”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/islamic-hate-and-intolerance-treat-disease-not-symptoms/).
Readers may recall that in 80s, 90s and 2000s; and despite the happening of 9/11, the entire world used to hesitate to link the rapidly fulminating Jihadi terror to Islam. All used to say, ‘Terrorism has no religion’… BUT…Trump was the first Republican Presidential candidate during his preliminaries in 2016 election who coined the term “Radical Islam” and also linked the fanning Jihadi terrorism to it. That Jihadi terrorism is before us in the form of ‘Hamas-Hezbollah-Houthi-United Islamic Jihad’, showing its ugly face presently in the Middle East and Trump-2 is expected to deal with it firmly. NATO having dealt with Islamic terrorism firmly in Afghanistan and Iraq, has been having a soft approach in Kosovo where Serbia is facing the maximum heat (read “Kosovo Being Engulfed by Islamic Cancer”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/christian-kosovo-being-engulfed-by-islamic-cancer/). Similarly, the warring Jihadist forces in Sudan have committed complete genocide of 3 African Tribes namely Fur, Masselite and Zaghava; to which both UNSC and USA have been indifferent. Trump is expected to take the UNSC/UNHRC to task for their silence. India too may be keen to take-up the cause of the Sikhs and Hindus in Afghanistan who have faced complete genocide, to which the UN agencies have been indifferent (read “Muted UNHRC Response Encouraging Islamic Genocides”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/muted-unhrc-response-encouraging-islamic-genocide/). If good sense prevails, Trump may also like to take on the UN Secretary general in not reforming the UNSC and China becoming a hurdle in it.
At his home front itself, Trump-2 has to firmly deal with the huge issue of illegal migrants who have made the streets and road-pavements of USA as slums. He will also be warry of how Muslims living in USA had paralysed the various universities on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. He fully knows that leaving exceptions, any and all Muslims who practice Islam as dictated in Quran, are radicals who could behave as Jihadists or at least support or sympathise with them (Quran Incompatible with Secular Ethos”, https://thecounterviews.in/articles/quran-incompatible-for-secular-ethos-lessons-from-hamas/). This is amply evident in America and Europe. They don’t hesitate in taking law in their own hands through their anti-Sematic behaviors. This was amply on display on the streets of Amsterdam on 8th Nov 24 when Arab Muslims attacked Israeli supporters of a football match. Intolerant and hateful behaviors of Muslims are fast becoming a major law & order issue for all nations.
All the above challenges will be tough to deal with, that will highly depend on tactful handling by the US leadership. Fortunately, President Trump will have his Republican majority Senate and the House of Representatives that may make it a bit smooth sailing in framing various policies to deal with the many issues. Republican will also have some hold on the selection of the Supreme Court Judges like those in past that may facilitate safeguarding his tough decisions.
The Bottom lines
Donald Trump is the present ‘President Elect’ of USA. He is yet to assume charge of the President of the USA along with his team of executives. He has numerous challenges in front of him. Degradation of US streets into Slums, High inflation and cost of living, declining health care systems, rising racial hatred and violence, declining economy etc are some of his immediate challenges to deal with on home front itself. On the international fronts, he has to combat several adversaries and enemies including his own unpredictability. US-fueled fire raging in Ukraine is the first to douse. Then comes the task of reducing diverse deployments of the US Forces around the world severely putting strain on his Armed Forces. Presently, around 2.5 million US forces are deployed on highest combat preparedness in and around Ukraine; middle east (Gaza-Lebanon-Iran-Red Sea); Indo-pacific and Taiwan Strait. There is a serious threat of the Chinese invading Taiwan. It will be a serious challenge for Trump-2 to deal with China. There is also a serious threat of alignment of inimical forces of Russia and China with Iran and North Korea…something that the past US leaderships have been calling it “an Axis of Evils”. If at all, all these threats are likely to be reduced only gradually with some de-escalation in Ukraine and Taiwan. De-escalation against the Jihadist terrorists in the middle east are not in his hands though.
Europe and NATO having enjoyed free flow of US funds during Biden’s time are likely to face the crunch. Most of the EU members already burdened with high inflation and adverse economy, may feel relieved with Trump-2 that they may not express publicly. Funds to Ukraine may be reduced sharply. Iran may experience more heat from Trump-2 in the form of additional sanctions for their state-sponsoring of terrorism as well as indulgence in nuclear proliferation. The world would be watching US leadership as to how they deal with the numerous thorny issues in almost all continents.