Zelenskyy on Suicidal Path in Kursk
Ukrainian Misadventure in Kursk
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy seems to be marching on a dangerous path by asking his men-starved Army to invade Kursk region of Russia. It must be said that his Armed Forces had a very reliable and precise intelligence of military-deficient zones of Kursk region so that his moderate strength troops (may be 3000+) with combat vehicles (may be 60-odd APCs, 54 Tanks, four dozen of artillery guns) could manage to intrude into Russian territories. Thanks to the EU-controlled western media that claims an unrealistic 1000 sq Km occupied by Ukrainian Forces. Burnt skeletons of Ukrainian Tanks (both T-90 & Leopard-2) are visible as deep as 25-odd kilometer in Russian territories. Whatever gain may be it is surely an embarrassment for Russia that was once considered a superpower.
It is true that Ukrainian forces have traded a path on precision intelligence of no armed resistance BUT it is for sure that most of their combat vehicles (35 Tanks, 42 APC) and >500 soldiers were knocked out in the first wave of SU-34 aerial attack by Russian Air Force on 13 Aug 24, compelling the troops to abandon further march and take shelter in the civilian Russian homes. Combat Hptrs are getting ready to knock out the hidden Ukrainian war machines. Not only their forward moves have stopped but it is evidently looking like a suicidal mission for sure BUT with a rider that Ukrainians hiding in the civilian premises will make it difficult for the Russian Forces to take them head-on. All combat vehicles have been well secured with sufficient camouflaging, many in the residential areas.
Faulty Ukrainian Tactical Planning
Ukrainians must have thought that with this incursion, Russia may be compelled to withdraw troops from engagement along their eastern border BUT they should have known that the number of Russian troops in the current engagement is only between 25-30%. Russia will be able to handle this incursion with ease and on the contrary, Ukraine will suffer the paucity in the number on their eastern fronts. We must remember that Ukraine is already in short supply of their fatiguing troops with a conservative figure of >1.5 lakh martyred. This incursion will surely compel Russians to deploy more forces along its border AND that will also make Ukrainians to react in deploying more troops which is a tough ask in the present scenario. There is also a strong possibility of the Russian troops to choke the invaders of logistic support that will make them surrender in weeks/months
The tactical planners must ponder as to what actual gain will accrue out of this lopsided move. If this was to cease Russian territories as bargaining chips during a possible negotiation for ceasefire, Ukrainians will have to sacrifice lot of their forces and combat veh to even retain their short-time possessions. Attritions on the invaders in any battle are invariably much higher than on the side of defenders. Hence, it could be considered Ukraine’s misadventure at best than any tactical gains. In order to mobilise these 3000-odd troops into Kursk, Ukraine must have withdrawn from some other Op area. Of course, western media claimed that about 10,000 troops invaded Kursk so as to compel Russia to withdraw commensurate number of forces from Donbas BUT Russia has apparently not fallen in that trap. Now, in order to keep the logistic line intact, they will have to deploy more troops withdrawn from some other theatre of operations. Those fronts will surely be weakened for the Russian Forces to gain more grounds.
Embarrassments for Russia
It is a huge embarrassment for Russian Defence System as to how their intelligence services failed to detect the Ukrainian move of reasonably moderate size forces towards Kursk. They should have been able to detect this move by their intelligence wings whether on ground, in Air or in Space. Further, how can a nation (Russia) engaged in war along the major parts of its international border fighting to gain (Ukrainian) grounds and leave substantial chunk of own borders undefended for the enemy troops to invade unchallenged? Such failure was seen along Israeli border when jihadists of Hamas invaded on whichever civilian vehicles they had. Israel was totally caught unaware though it was not at war at that time. However, Russia letting Ukrainian troops to invade along international borders with Ukraine is beyond comprehensions.
Russia is believed to have evacuated about 2 lack civilians from the area. Once Ukrainian troops occupy and take positions in the civilian premises, those localities may face the same fate as Gaza. In effort to uproot the terrorists, most if not all premises may have to be razed to ground. Experts in Mil Ops foresee a long-drawn operations in Kursk before regaining control. Experts don’t rule out counter-offensive in the unguided Ukrainian territories in Sumi and further west where it may have a near walk through in the absence of Ukrainian defense unless either party is able to inflict surprises on the other. With every passing month, Ukraine appears to be getting closure to more troubles.
The Bottomlines
Zelensky has taken a huge risk of opening another front against Russia where a moderate size force has invaded Kursk. This force is now facing annihilation and chocking with apparently more than half of combat equipment already knocked off by Russian Air Force. There has been high casualty as expected in invading force. Possibly most of these troops will be dead or taken PoW. However, it is a lesson for Russia and the world that no nation whatever strong, can afford to leave its border with enemies unguarded esp while at war. Russia will be a wrong example in military Ops to have goofed up once again and another example will possibly be Ukraine how their military bosses sent thousands of troops with combat vehicles on a suicidal mission in Kursk. Experts in Military Ops are predicting some catastrophic events. Russia has shown unusual restraint with huge stockpiles of nuclear arsenals despite heavy tolls of own soldiers and combat vehicles. That shackle may not remain for very long.